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Red129
247839.4
414630.4
237541.6
Blue122
240356.8
116542.6
418327.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11213250100150200250129122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
+9Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
9Leave6
2Coral scored#5
11Coral points24
20Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +19
21Coral scored#14
75Coral points52
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
18Processor points18
12Net points16
30Algae points34
105Total teleop86
Reef
8L4#7
5L3#4
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
129Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.4
41.141.4
Auto11.1
Teleop29.4
End1.0
blue by 15.2
56.80.1
56.756.6
Auto9.8
Teleop40.4
End6.7
Second
39.40.4
38.939.3
Auto6.3
Teleop31.0
End2.0
blue by 3.2
42.60.1
42.542.3
Auto9.9
Teleop32.2
End0.5
Third
4146
#16
30.40.4
29.930.3
Auto4.0
Teleop24.2
End2.2
red by 2.7
4183
#11
27.80.1
27.727.6
Auto2.6
Teleop22.9
End2.2