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Red109
247839.4
414630.4
237541.6
Blue141
240356.8
116542.6
418327.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11313150100150200109141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+22
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +26
13Coral scored#19
48Coral points68
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
12Processor points18
20Net points20
32Algae points38
80Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#11
4L3#3
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
109Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.0
41.141.1
Auto11.1
Teleop29.4
End1.0
blue by 15.2
56.80.3
56.456.7
Auto9.8
Teleop40.4
End6.7
Second
39.40.0
38.938.9
Auto6.3
Teleop31.0
End2.0
blue by 3.2
42.60.3
42.142.5
Auto9.9
Teleop32.2
End0.5
Third
4146
#16
30.40.0
30.029.9
Auto4.0
Teleop24.2
End2.2
red by 2.7
4183
#11
27.80.3
27.327.7
Auto2.6
Teleop22.9
End2.2