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Red114
116548.9
498C45.3
Blue54
1025615.1
647924.0
99614.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9245015011454

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+58Teleop
+54Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
9Leave9
4Coral scored#1
18Coral points3
27Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +43
13Coral scored#7
45Coral points26
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
18Processor points6
16Net points4
34Algae points10
79Total teleop36
Reef
6L4#4
6L3#1
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +60
6Foul points0
114Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.91.6
42.744.3
Auto12.4
Teleop36.8
End-0.3
red by 24.9
24.00.2
25.325.4
Auto4.2
Teleop19.1
End0.7
Second
45.32.3
37.739.9
Auto6.0
Teleop33.7
End5.6
red by 30.2
15.10.2
12.512.6
Auto3.0
Teleop9.1
End2.9
Third
3.62.6
1.23.8
Auto3.4
Teleop-0.2
End0.3
blue by 10.6
996
#16
14.20.2
10.811.0
Auto4.6
Teleop7.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed