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Red158
13146.8
23836.1
13867.1
Blue120
404139.4
226221.4
271345.7
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions167102050150200250158120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+44Teleop
+46Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave9
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points4
37Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +20
20Coral scored#19
73Coral points69
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
18Processor points6
16Net points12
34Algae points18
107Total teleop87
Reef
7L4#10
10L3#4
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
14Cage & park12
14Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points8
158Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
138
#29
67.10.1
63.863.7
Auto13.4
Teleop44.4
End9.3
red by 21.3
2713
#28
45.70.0
44.244.3
Auto7.5
Teleop30.4
End7.9
Second
131
#10
46.80.1
42.542.4
Auto10.5
Teleop31.3
End5.1
red by 7.5
4041
#16
39.40.0
28.128.1
Auto5.8
Teleop27.0
End6.5
Third
238
#12
36.10.1
33.032.9
Auto5.2
Teleop27.1
End3.8
red by 14.7
2262
#62
21.40.0
20.520.5
Auto3.3
Teleop15.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsMissed66%Barge oddsEarned