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Red139
147410.1
632874.0
172946.1
Blue133
404139.4
237057.8
205335.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12715050100200139133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+22Teleop
+10Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +21
17Coral scored#17
61Coral points62
4Processor algae#1
6Net algae#5
24Processor points6
24Net points20
48Algae points26
109Total teleop88
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#6
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points4
139Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6328
#40
74.01.9
66.368.2
Auto17.1
Teleop47.7
End9.2
red by 16.2
2370
#49
57.80.1
57.958.0
Auto8.3
Teleop41.0
End8.4
Second
1729
#25
46.11.9
38.840.7
Auto11.0
Teleop30.6
End4.4
red by 6.7
4041
#16
39.40.1
35.135.1
Auto5.8
Teleop27.0
End6.5
Third
1474
#60
10.11.9
5.97.8
Auto1.5
Teleop6.9
End1.7
blue by 25.8
2053
#45
35.90.1
34.834.9
Auto9.2
Teleop25.3
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsMissed43%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsMissed75%Barge oddsEarned