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Red188
17731.1
16662.0
13867.1
Blue158
490957.9
46754.3
1022910.1
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160135050100200250300188158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+20Teleop
+32Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave9
7Coral scored#1
37Coral points7
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
24Coral scored#17
85Coral points60
2Processor algae#5
4Net algae#6
12Processor points30
16Net points24
28Algae points54
113Total teleop114
Reef
15L4#9
6L3#5
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#29
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
2Foul points4
188Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
138
#29
67.12.1
62.064.0
Auto13.4
Teleop44.4
End9.3
red by 9.2
4909
#53
57.91.4
57.358.7
Auto15.1
Teleop34.8
End8.0
Second
166
#17
62.02.1
54.056.0
Auto12.3
Teleop39.5
End10.3
red by 7.8
467
#54
54.31.4
53.755.1
Auto12.6
Teleop34.6
End7.1
Third
177
#59
31.12.1
25.727.8
Auto8.4
Teleop16.0
End6.8
red by 21.1
10.11.4
6.88.2
Auto0.5
Teleop7.2
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned