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Red189
23836.1
242343.5
15739.2
Blue140
105834.2
568773.2
318225.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106162050200250300189140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
+33Teleop
+55Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave9
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points32
23Total auto41
TeleoperatedRed +51
27Coral scored#16
98Coral points57
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
12Processor points6
20Net points16
32Algae points22
130Total teleop79
Reef
9L4#8
10L3#9
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#27
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points6
189Total score140

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2423
#31
43.55.7
35.941.6
Auto14.1
Teleop25.0
End4.4
blue by 29.8
5687
#37
73.20.3
72.972.6
Auto22.2
Teleop44.8
End6.3
Second
157
#27
39.25.7
32.738.4
Auto1.6
Teleop29.1
End8.5
red by 5.0
1058
#47
34.20.3
33.833.5
Auto9.5
Teleop19.7
End5.0
Third
238
#12
36.15.7
29.535.2
Auto5.2
Teleop27.1
End3.8
red by 10.7
3182
#57
25.40.3
25.925.5
Auto6.6
Teleop15.8
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsMissed