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Red223
694106.6
19074.3
208420.6
Blue120
110040.7
856733.6
237057.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions227146050100200250300350223120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+77Teleop
+89Endgame
+103Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
0Leave6
12Coral scored#3
58Coral points17
58Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +42
29Coral scored#18
103Coral points63
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
127Total teleop85
Reef
14L4#7
13L3#9
7L2#3
7L1 · trough#2
46Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
24Cage & park12
24Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +103
14Foul points0
223Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
694
#3
106.60.1
102.8102.9
Auto26.3
Teleop65.3
End15.0
red by 48.8
2370
#49
57.81.6
58.056.4
Auto8.3
Teleop41.0
End8.4
Second
190
#4
74.30.1
70.570.6
Auto23.8
Teleop41.6
End8.9
red by 33.5
1100
#30
40.71.6
42.340.7
Auto8.7
Teleop27.5
End4.6
Third
2084
#24
20.60.1
20.020.1
Auto5.2
Teleop11.8
End3.6
blue by 13.0
8567
#39
33.61.6
34.733.1
Auto5.5
Teleop24.2
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned48%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsMissed