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Qual 482025 Canadian Pacific Regional
Red120
243845.7
84630.1
946515.9
Blue81
442132.7
432722.8
918020.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83795060709010011012012081

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+37Teleop
+53Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +30
13Coral scored#11
46Coral points38
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
18Processor points12
24Net points8
42Algae points20
88Total teleop58
Reef
6L4#4
3L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#16
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points14
120Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2438
#21
45.73.3
35.9→39.2
Auto9.4
Teleop33.3
End3.0
red by 13.0
4421
#12
32.72.4
31.9→29.4
Auto5.6
Teleop24.2
End3.0
Second
846
#36
30.13.3
27.7→31.0
Auto3.3
Teleop25.8
End1.0
red by 7.3
4327
#48
22.82.4
23.9→21.5
Auto3.0
Teleop18.0
End1.8
Third
9465
#18
15.93.3
10.0→13.3
Auto3.3
Teleop7.2
End5.4
blue by 4.8
9180
#37
20.72.4
16.2→13.7
Auto4.9
Teleop16.0
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed