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Red128
850334.8
427058.4
927726.2
Blue22
1042710.4
1038411.9
73328.6
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1022405015020012822

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+86Teleop
+106Endgame
+106Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points6
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +69
16Coral scored#3
58Coral points9
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
12Processor points0
8Net points0
20Algae points0
78Total teleop9
Reef
9L4#2
6L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
24Game pieces#4
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +106
0Foul points0
128Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.44.5
41.145.6
Auto10.7
Teleop39.9
End7.9
red by 46.5
11.91.3
11.610.2
Auto3.2
Teleop6.6
End2.1
Second
34.84.5
26.230.7
Auto6.5
Teleop21.0
End7.3
red by 24.4
10.41.3
9.78.3
Auto3.3
Teleop5.2
End2.0
Third
9277
#16
26.24.5
17.422.0
Auto4.9
Teleop17.6
End3.6
red by 17.6
7332
#46
8.61.3
9.68.3
Auto3.4
Teleop4.2
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed