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Red128
768819.9
728723.8
312855.1
Blue70
462731.5
1038411.9
635311.0
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1116020408010012014016012870

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+30Teleop
+52Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +26
16Coral scored#12
58Coral points42
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
82Total teleop56
Reef
7L4#7
4L3#3
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#16
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
6Foul points0
128Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.11.8
50.051.8
Auto8.4
Teleop36.4
End10.2
red by 23.5
4627
#19
31.50.1
32.432.5
Auto6.9
Teleop22.0
End2.6
Second
7287
#17
23.81.8
22.023.9
Auto5.3
Teleop15.0
End3.5
red by 11.9
11.90.1
11.911.9
Auto3.2
Teleop6.6
End2.1
Third
7688
#14
19.91.8
17.519.3
Auto3.4
Teleop11.0
End5.4
red by 8.9
6353
#45
11.00.1
10.911.0
Auto1.4
Teleop9.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed