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Red85
755130.5
486218.9
462731.5
Blue123
425337.5
432722.8
636427.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10199608012014085123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
Teleop+22
Endgame+38
Fouls+38
AutonomousRed +5
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
15Coral points13
21Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +27
12Coral scored#18
44Coral points65
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
0Processor points6
12Net points12
12Algae points18
56Total teleop83
Reef
5L4#7
5L3#6
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
18Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +16
0Cage & park16
0Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +38
8Foul points8
85Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4627
#19
31.50.7
32.231.5
Auto6.9
Teleop22.0
End2.6
blue by 6.0
4253
#13
37.50.3
36.837.1
Auto9.1
Teleop23.7
End4.7
Second
7551
#11
30.50.7
31.230.5
Auto5.5
Teleop17.9
End7.2
red by 3.2
6364
#10
27.30.3
26.526.9
Auto5.8
Teleop18.3
End3.3
Third
4862
#42
18.90.7
19.618.9
Auto4.6
Teleop13.8
End0.4
blue by 3.9
4327
#48
22.80.3
22.122.4
Auto3.0
Teleop18.0
End1.8