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Red68
948424.6
920014.7
904615.9
Blue33
960416.6
1034511.7
965712.0
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions624902040801006833

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+29Teleop
+41Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +26
8Coral scored#4
30Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
40Total teleop14
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#4
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points6
68Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.61.1
21.322.4
Auto5.6
Teleop16.3
End2.7
red by 8.0
9604
#36
16.62.3
12.210.0
Auto3.8
Teleop11.7
End1.1
Second
9046
#39
15.91.1
14.815.9
Auto3.8
Teleop9.8
End2.4
red by 3.9
9657
#26
12.02.3
15.313.0
Auto3.1
Teleop6.9
End2.0
Third
9200
#40
14.71.1
15.716.8
Auto4.1
Teleop8.6
End2.1
red by 3.1
11.72.3
14.712.4
Auto3.1
Teleop7.9
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed