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Red14
916315.8
916617.9
Blue5
90458.2
904615.9
930212.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6159204080100145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+7Teleop
+7Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +4
2Coral scored#1
6Coral points2
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
6Total teleop2
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
2Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
0Cage & park0
0Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
2Foul points0
14Total score5

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9166
#16
17.94.5
16.812.3
Auto3.3
Teleop11.5
End3.0
red by 2.0
9046
#39
15.95.4
18.413.1
Auto3.8
Teleop9.8
End2.4
Second
9163
#29
15.84.5
17.613.1
Auto3.7
Teleop9.5
End2.6
red by 3.6
9302
#52
12.25.4
18.012.6
Auto3.3
Teleop8.2
End0.7
Third
6.86.5
6.813.3
Auto3.1
Teleop1.6
End2.1
blue by 1.3
9045
#55
8.25.4
17.011.6
Auto1.9
Teleop4.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed