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Red100
756545.0
908527.3
745915.4
Blue72
916923.3
827618.0
1029813.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9756020408012014016010072

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+28Teleop
+30Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
4Coral scored#4
19Coral points20
19Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +35
11Coral scored#6
41Coral points22
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
12Processor points0
12Net points8
24Algae points8
65Total teleop30
Reef
3L4#3
5L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points2
100Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.01.0
42.843.8
Auto6.4
Teleop30.3
End8.3
red by 21.7
9169
#13
23.30.9
27.428.2
Auto4.3
Teleop11.4
End7.6
Second
9085
#12
27.31.0
27.128.1
Auto6.5
Teleop18.7
End2.2
red by 9.3
8276
#26
18.00.9
17.718.6
Auto5.3
Teleop11.0
End1.7
Third
7459
#19
15.41.0
14.815.8
Auto4.6
Teleop6.5
End4.3
red by 2.2
13.21.3
11.612.9
Auto5.1
Teleop5.6
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsEarned