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Red60
921920.6
186031.3
917515.6
Blue102
115658.1
946025.8
1029116.9
12%Model gave it88%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions76107406010012014016060102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+30
Endgame+40
Fouls+42
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave3
1Coral scored#5
3Coral points23
9Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +13
10Coral scored#12
35Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
45Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#6
3L3#6
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +42
0Foul points2
60Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.30.8
33.032.2
Auto5.4
Teleop22.9
End2.9
blue by 26.8
58.10.6
50.150.7
Auto16.3
Teleop33.5
End8.3
Second
9219
#23
20.60.8
24.523.7
Auto4.0
Teleop16.3
End0.3
blue by 5.3
25.80.6
25.726.3
Auto5.6
Teleop18.3
End1.9
Third
9175
#27
15.60.8
14.413.6
Auto2.4
Teleop10.7
End2.5
blue by 1.3
16.90.9
14.815.7
Auto2.0
Teleop12.3
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
57%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsEarned