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Red71
888229.0
945936.4
Blue103
916821.7
920023.4
756742.0
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions879940608012014016071103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+18
Endgame+30
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave0
3Coral scored#4
16Coral points20
16Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +14
10Coral scored#11
37Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#5
6Processor points6
8Net points20
14Algae points26
51Total teleop65
Reef
3L4#3
5L3#5
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points2
71Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.40.5
35.435.0
Auto8.4
Teleop26.3
End1.8
blue by 5.6
42.01.0
43.244.3
Auto12.8
Teleop27.2
End2.0
Second
8882
#29
29.00.5
33.032.5
Auto3.9
Teleop22.7
End2.4
red by 5.6
9200
#18
23.41.0
21.222.2
Auto3.3
Teleop14.5
End5.6
Third
7.50.7
9.89.1
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End-1.3
blue by 14.2
9168
#15
21.71.5
21.222.7
Auto4.3
Teleop15.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsEarned