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Red54
997315.9
99948.5
462720.3
Blue39
999112.2
997721.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions564301001505439

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+9Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
7Coral scored#6
26Coral points20
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
30Total teleop28
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#9
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points0
54Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4627
#12
20.30.1
18.919.0
Auto5.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
blue by 1.2
21.50.1
21.621.5
Auto4.0
Teleop14.3
End3.0
Second
15.90.1
14.614.7
Auto3.9
Teleop5.6
End6.3
red by 3.8
12.20.1
12.312.2
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End2.1
Third
8.50.1
7.27.3
Auto1.6
Teleop5.9
End1.0
red by 1.0
7.50.1
7.77.5
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1