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Red157
412353.9
606010.8
254351.3
Blue124
340826.7
59942.6
84663.4
52%Model gave it48%

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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1031026080120140157124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+19Teleop
+31Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
9Leave6
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points24
22Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +27
23Coral scored#18
81Coral points64
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
18Processor points12
20Net points16
38Algae points28
119Total teleop92
Reef
9L4#9
6L3#7
6L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#29
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
2Foul points0
157Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4123
#16
53.94.3
35.139.4
Auto14.3
Teleop37.8
End1.8
blue by 9.5
846
#5
63.41.1
39.841.0
Auto13.5
Teleop46.8
End3.0
Second
51.33.2
42.445.6
Auto4.1
Teleop36.6
End10.5
red by 8.7
599
#30
42.61.4
31.633.0
Auto8.5
Teleop32.9
End1.2
Third
6060
#33
10.84.3
12.016.3
Auto4.9
Teleop4.6
End1.2
blue by 15.9
3408
#27
26.71.9
18.920.8
Auto4.4
Teleop20.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed