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Red138
519969.7
68734.6
392513.2
Blue165
170025.2
151531.3
84663.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11611102004006008001,000138165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+21
Endgame+31
Fouls+27
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave9
4Coral scored#3
18Coral points14
27Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +25
16Coral scored#19
59Coral points70
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#7
6Processor points12
20Net points28
26Algae points40
85Total teleop110
Reef
8L4#7
5L3#6
3L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
10Foul points6
138Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5199
#19
69.71.1
67.068.1
Auto13.5
Teleop46.1
End10.1
red by 6.4
846
#5
63.43.5
55.959.5
Auto13.5
Teleop46.8
End3.0
Second
687
#28
34.61.1
31.832.9
Auto7.5
Teleop22.6
End4.5
red by 3.2
1515
#34
31.33.5
27.831.3
Auto4.4
Teleop19.7
End7.2
Third
3925
#40
13.21.1
12.113.2
Auto2.8
Teleop7.4
End3.1
blue by 12.0
1700
#14
25.23.5
22.125.7
Auto5.5
Teleop16.3
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsMissed86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsEarned