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Red143
59942.6
29457.2
39947.4
Blue163
84663.4
412353.9
116039.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159157100200250143163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+16
Endgame+18
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave9
4Coral scored#8
21Coral points42
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +5
23Coral scored#23
81Coral points82
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
109Total teleop104
Reef
11L4#8
6L3#7
5L2#10
5L1 · trough#6
33Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points2
143Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
294
#8
57.20.1
57.357.2
Auto10.8
Teleop43.8
End2.6
blue by 6.1
846
#5
63.40.3
60.560.8
Auto13.5
Teleop46.8
End3.0
Second
399
#3
47.40.1
47.547.4
Auto8.1
Teleop33.2
End6.2
blue by 6.5
4123
#16
53.90.3
51.051.3
Auto14.3
Teleop37.8
End1.8
Third
599
#30
42.60.1
42.842.6
Auto8.5
Teleop32.9
End1.2
red by 3.6
1160
#25
39.10.3
36.236.4
Auto8.8
Teleop26.4
End3.8