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Red120
1020237.0
550764.3
1022112.2
Blue94
186835.5
1025218.9
417112.8
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113635010015012094

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+42Teleop
+44Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave0
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points26
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +31
15Coral scored#8
53Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
67Total teleop36
Reef
9L4#4
4L3#3
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points18
120Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.31.6
51.252.8
Auto19.3
Teleop37.1
End7.9
red by 28.8
1868
#11
35.51.1
33.935.0
Auto10.4
Teleop20.8
End4.3
Second
37.01.6
30.131.8
Auto7.7
Teleop28.0
End1.3
red by 18.1
18.91.1
11.812.9
Auto3.5
Teleop13.8
End1.6
Third
12.22.7
14.216.9
Auto1.8
Teleop8.6
End1.7
blue by 0.6
4171
#48
12.81.8
14.015.8
Auto5.8
Teleop4.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsEarned