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Red153
947049.1
803377.4
255121.5
Blue80
417112.8
804521.6
84156.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1428705010020015380

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+59Teleop
+71Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave6
4Coral scored#0
19Coral points0
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +46
22Coral scored#14
78Coral points50
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
116Total teleop70
Reef
11L4#4
5L3#6
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#18
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
2Foul points0
153Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.41.0
67.668.6
Auto21.1
Teleop48.4
End8.0
red by 20.8
841
#20
56.60.9
51.250.3
Auto9.8
Teleop40.8
End6.1
Second
9470
#16
49.11.0
34.535.5
Auto12.5
Teleop36.0
End0.6
red by 27.5
8045
#46
21.61.5
17.315.8
Auto4.7
Teleop14.3
End2.6
Third
2551
#45
21.51.1
25.026.1
Auto2.9
Teleop15.8
End2.7
red by 8.7
4171
#48
12.81.5
17.215.6
Auto5.8
Teleop4.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsMissed