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Red103
348249.8
592429.4
72459.4
Blue58
681431.7
1033915.8
879338.4
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81825060709010011012010358

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+33Teleop
+29Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points12
22Total auto18
TeleoperatedRed +29
11Coral scored#6
41Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
59Total teleop30
Reef
6L4#3
4L3#3
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +4
6Cage & park10
6Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
16Foul points0
103Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3482
#14
49.80.8
39.840.6
Auto12.8
Teleop35.8
End1.3
red by 11.4
8793
#26
38.41.2
27.226.0
Auto11.6
Teleop22.6
End4.2
Second
5924
#15
29.40.8
23.724.5
Auto8.6
Teleop17.6
End3.2
blue by 2.4
6814
#41
31.71.2
29.628.5
Auto7.1
Teleop23.3
End1.3
Third
7245
#51
9.40.8
11.212.0
Auto3.6
Teleop5.6
End0.2
blue by 6.3
15.81.2
18.917.7
Auto4.7
Teleop8.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed