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Red151
64933.2
19924.9
541962.7
Blue69
698530.9
1025218.9
128023.8
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9948015020015169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+68Teleop
+76Endgame
+82Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave9
6Coral scored#0
28Coral points0
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +40
13Coral scored#11
48Coral points40
3Processor algae#1
7Net algae#2
18Processor points6
28Net points8
46Algae points14
94Total teleop54
Reef
6L4#5
4L3#2
5L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#14
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +82
6Foul points0
151Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.73.6
49.152.6
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End8.8
red by 31.8
6985
#28
30.91.2
25.126.3
Auto7.8
Teleop18.7
End4.3
Second
649
#31
33.23.6
20.223.7
Auto8.5
Teleop22.5
End2.2
red by 9.5
1280
#24
23.80.8
14.615.5
Auto4.3
Teleop17.2
End2.3
Third
199
#8
24.93.6
17.120.7
Auto6.1
Teleop17.8
End1.0
red by 6.0
18.90.8
10.711.6
Auto3.5
Teleop13.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned11%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed