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Red200
285431.2
25490.2
517144.8
Blue157
804521.6
1020237.0
135149.6
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17810150150200250200157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+31Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
9Coral scored#6
45Coral points28
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +17
25Coral scored#24
91Coral points88
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
24Processor points18
20Net points12
44Algae points30
135Total teleop118
Reef
14L4#11
6L3#11
7L2#4
7L1 · trough#4
43Game pieces#36
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points0
200Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#1
90.22.0
85.887.8
Auto20.8
Teleop59.0
End10.5
red by 40.7
1351
#18
49.62.8
48.551.3
Auto16.2
Teleop31.6
End1.7
Second
5171
#13
44.82.0
41.143.1
Auto10.9
Teleop26.8
End7.1
red by 7.8
37.02.8
31.133.9
Auto7.7
Teleop28.0
End1.3
Third
2854
#21
31.22.0
26.728.7
Auto6.2
Teleop22.7
End2.3
red by 9.6
8045
#46
21.64.7
18.122.8
Auto4.7
Teleop14.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed