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Red138
879338.4
417112.8
541962.7
Blue117
76651.7
58928.9
25322.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114105406080140160180138117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+15Teleop
+9Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
3Leave0
6Coral scored#3
32Coral points13
35Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +7
12Coral scored#18
43Coral points64
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
71Total teleop78
Reef
9L4#5
5L3#7
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#5
24Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +6
20Cage & park26
20Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
12Foul points0
138Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.71.6
58.059.5
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End8.8
red by 11.0
766
#22
51.71.4
46.948.3
Auto7.4
Teleop38.4
End5.9
Second
8793
#26
38.41.6
31.232.8
Auto11.6
Teleop22.6
End4.2
red by 9.5
589
#40
28.91.4
30.431.7
Auto4.8
Teleop16.3
End7.8
Third
4171
#48
12.82.6
13.416.0
Auto5.8
Teleop4.8
End2.1
blue by 9.6
253
#25
22.41.4
19.120.5
Auto3.0
Teleop16.7
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned