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Red200
97258.5
879338.4
803377.4
Blue158
885251.1
605925.9
903848.3
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176128100150200250200158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+16Teleop
+46Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave9
9Coral scored#4
44Coral points22
44Total auto31
TeleoperatedRed +3
29Coral scored#24
106Coral points85
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
12Processor points18
8Net points20
20Algae points38
126Total teleop123
Reef
13L4#12
11L3#5
7L2#6
7L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#36
BargeRed +30
30Cage & park0
30Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points4
200Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.40.9
72.773.6
Auto21.1
Teleop48.4
End8.0
red by 26.3
8852
#33
51.10.6
51.652.2
Auto13.4
Teleop37.5
End0.2
Second
972
#4
58.50.9
53.854.7
Auto11.1
Teleop38.1
End9.3
red by 10.2
9038
#29
48.30.6
48.849.4
Auto14.5
Teleop32.4
End1.3
Third
8793
#26
38.40.9
33.834.6
Auto11.6
Teleop22.6
End4.2
red by 12.5
6059
#10
25.90.6
26.427.0
Auto5.2
Teleop18.9
End1.8