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Red215
699585.1
59953.3
473881.2
Blue195
940881.2
945239.5
359100.6
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2272380100300400500600700800215195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
3Leave3
15Coral scored#9
73Coral points44
76Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +15
18Coral scored#26
63Coral points92
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
105Total teleop120
Reef
13L4#12
7L3#10
6L2#8
7L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#41
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +20
8Foul points12
215Total score195

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6995
#11
85.10.3
85.485.1
Auto18.8
Teleop56.2
End10.1
blue by 15.5
359
#1
100.60.9
101.5100.6
Auto22.7
Teleop65.7
End12.2
Second
81.20.3
81.581.2
Auto24.6
Teleop45.5
End11.2
Level
81.20.9
82.181.2
Auto17.2
Teleop54.5
End9.5
Third
599
#29
53.30.3
53.653.3
Auto14.4
Teleop38.2
End0.7
red by 13.8
9452
#30
39.50.9
40.439.5
Auto5.7
Teleop29.2
End4.5