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Red194
427087.0
265942.1
68735.1
Blue182
580537.1
940881.2
432262.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1651710100200300400500194182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+2
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave9
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points28
41Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +6
20Coral scored#23
73Coral points83
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#7
18Processor points18
32Net points28
50Algae points46
123Total teleop129
Reef
12L4#11
7L3#8
4L2#6
5L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#39
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
194Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.02.5
79.481.9
Auto15.7
Teleop61.8
End9.4
red by 5.8
81.21.9
83.785.6
Auto17.2
Teleop54.5
End9.5
Second
2659
#28
42.12.5
39.642.1
Auto8.7
Teleop31.7
End1.7
blue by 20.4
4322
#22
62.51.9
39.241.1
Auto12.7
Teleop48.7
End1.1
Third
687
#31
35.12.5
28.531.0
Auto3.9
Teleop23.9
End7.3
blue by 2.0
5805
#27
37.11.9
27.729.6
Auto7.1
Teleop25.9
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsMissed84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsMissed41%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned