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Red206
744721.2
347672.0
699585.1
Blue159
183632.5
119762.8
265942.1
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157157150160170180190206159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+49Teleop
+49Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
7Coral scored#6
34Coral points30
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +45
26Coral scored#22
93Coral points80
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#3
18Processor points6
32Net points12
50Algae points18
143Total teleop98
Reef
14L4#8
8L3#10
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
44Game pieces#32
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points2
206Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6995
#11
85.14.0
73.978.0
Auto18.8
Teleop56.2
End10.1
red by 22.3
1197
#15
62.80.8
57.258.0
Auto18.4
Teleop37.1
End7.3
Second
72.04.0
51.555.6
Auto14.0
Teleop50.1
End8.0
red by 30.0
2659
#28
42.10.8
40.241.0
Auto8.7
Teleop31.7
End1.7
Third
7447
#34
21.24.0
17.321.3
Auto6.8
Teleop12.0
End2.4
blue by 11.3
1836
#41
32.50.8
44.345.1
Auto6.6
Teleop21.7
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsEarned28%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsEarned