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Red201
312857.9
212270.9
927130.2
Blue177
271037.2
420145.8
265942.1
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18612950100150250300201177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+22Teleop
+22Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave9
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points28
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +33
30Coral scored#23
109Coral points84
4Processor algae#4
6Net algae#4
24Processor points24
24Net points16
48Algae points40
157Total teleop124
Reef
8L4#9
14L3#8
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#5
43Game pieces#37
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
2Foul points0
201Total score177

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2122
#12
70.90.8
69.069.8
Auto14.6
Teleop48.3
End7.9
red by 25.1
4201
#42
45.82.1
42.744.7
Auto9.3
Teleop28.6
End7.8
Second
3128
#10
57.90.8
56.457.3
Auto8.8
Teleop38.2
End10.8
red by 15.8
2659
#28
42.12.1
38.440.5
Auto8.7
Teleop31.7
End1.7
Third
9271
#25
30.20.8
29.430.2
Auto2.5
Teleop22.7
End5.0
blue by 7.0
2710
#18
37.22.1
35.137.2
Auto5.6
Teleop25.4
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
54%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned65%Barge oddsEarned