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Red189
940881.2
359100.6
704247.0
Blue234
699585.1
59953.3
473881.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions253223100150200300350189234

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+19
Teleop+57
Endgame+47
Fouls+45
AutonomousBlue +19
6Leave9
7Coral scored#11
37Coral points53
43Total auto62
TeleoperatedBlue +38
24Coral scored#30
86Coral points108
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#8
12Processor points12
16Net points32
28Algae points44
114Total teleop152
Reef
14L4#11
10L3#11
4L2#13
3L1 · trough#6
37Game pieces#51
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +45
6Foul points4
189Total score234

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#1
100.61.1
102.7101.6
Auto22.7
Teleop65.7
End12.2
red by 15.5
6995
#11
85.10.3
84.484.7
Auto18.8
Teleop56.2
End10.1
Second
81.21.1
83.382.2
Auto17.2
Teleop54.5
End9.5
Level
81.20.3
80.680.9
Auto24.6
Teleop45.5
End11.2
Third
7042
#23
47.01.1
48.247.0
Auto5.6
Teleop32.0
End9.3
blue by 6.3
599
#29
53.30.3
52.752.9
Auto14.4
Teleop38.2
End0.7