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Red234
940881.2
359100.6
704247.0
Blue222
49872.9
212270.9
420145.8
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions256192100150300350234222

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+4
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave0
10Coral scored#11
48Coral points55
54Total auto55
TeleoperatedBlue +3
27Coral scored#24
98Coral points85
2Processor algae#4
7Net algae#8
12Processor points24
28Net points32
40Algae points56
138Total teleop141
Reef
20L4#14
7L3#10
5L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
46Game pieces#47
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
234Total score222

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#1
100.60.1
101.6101.5
Auto22.7
Teleop65.7
End12.2
red by 27.7
498
#3
72.90.8
72.272.9
Auto15.0
Teleop47.9
End10.0
Second
81.20.1
82.282.1
Auto17.2
Teleop54.5
End9.5
red by 10.3
2122
#12
70.90.8
70.170.9
Auto14.6
Teleop48.3
End7.9
Third
7042
#23
47.00.1
47.047.0
Auto5.6
Teleop32.0
End9.3
red by 1.2
4201
#42
45.80.8
45.045.8
Auto9.3
Teleop28.6
End7.8