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Red113
527430.3
661945.5
359834.0
Blue134
594079.2
549916.5
325642.8
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105187050150200250300113134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+41
Endgame+29
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave6
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points24
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +30
13Coral scored#17
46Coral points62
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
60Total teleop90
Reef
7L4#8
5L3#6
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#28
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +21
8Foul points0
113Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6619
#11
45.50.6
38.037.4
Auto5.3
Teleop35.6
End4.6
blue by 33.7
79.22.1
84.682.4
Auto18.4
Teleop51.3
End9.5
Second
3598
#17
34.00.6
35.534.8
Auto11.4
Teleop13.6
End9.1
blue by 8.8
3256
#27
42.82.1
47.745.6
Auto8.7
Teleop29.3
End4.8
Third
5274
#23
30.30.6
32.131.5
Auto5.8
Teleop22.2
End2.3
red by 13.8
5499
#32
16.52.1
22.720.5
Auto4.9
Teleop11.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed81%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsEarned