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Red234
1127446.2
84669.7
581754.5
Blue92
464312.7
741931.0
415945.9
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1759005015020025030023492

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+126Teleop
+138Endgame
+142Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave3
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +105
32Coral scored#18
116Coral points63
3Processor algae#1
12Net algae#2
18Processor points6
48Net points8
66Algae points14
182Total teleop77
Reef
9L4#7
12L3#5
10L2#4
7L1 · trough#3
53Game pieces#22
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +142
6Foul points2
234Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
846
#6
69.74.6
63.267.8
Auto15.3
Teleop45.7
End8.7
red by 23.8
4159
#20
45.90.7
39.839.0
Auto13.0
Teleop30.8
End2.1
Second
5817
#19
54.54.6
56.961.5
Auto6.9
Teleop47.2
End0.4
red by 23.4
7419
#28
31.00.7
34.934.2
Auto7.5
Teleop23.2
End0.2
Third
46.27.6
28.335.9
Auto12.0
Teleop29.3
End4.8
red by 33.5
4643
#31
12.70.7
15.114.4
Auto3.7
Teleop8.3
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed