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Red207
264337.4
167891.3
947036.0
Blue172
84170.5
196735.1
213561.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166168120140160180200207172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+22
+27Teleop
+29Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousBlue +22
3Leave3
7Coral scored#11
34Coral points56
37Total auto59
TeleoperatedRed +49
27Coral scored#16
96Coral points57
4Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
24Processor points18
28Net points24
52Algae points42
148Total teleop99
Reef
7L4#9
12L3#10
8L2#4
7L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#36
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
6Foul points0
207Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.33.6
85.789.3
Auto20.6
Teleop60.9
End9.8
red by 20.8
841
#4
70.51.2
60.561.7
Auto16.3
Teleop42.6
End11.6
Second
2643
#15
37.43.6
32.035.6
Auto3.2
Teleop32.6
End1.6
blue by 24.3
2135
#13
61.71.2
59.360.5
Auto18.2
Teleop42.0
End1.5
Third
9470
#10
36.03.6
29.032.6
Auto10.8
Teleop22.7
End2.5
red by 0.8
1967
#26
35.11.2
33.935.1
Auto8.8
Teleop26.5
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsEarned69%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned76%Barge oddsEarned