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Red216
167891.3
70120.6
594079.2
Blue95
469844.8
425517.4
318924.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions23466010015020030035021695

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+107Teleop
+115Endgame
+121Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points27
37Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +97
27Coral scored#9
97Coral points34
4Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
24Processor points6
28Net points12
52Algae points18
149Total teleop52
Reef
11L4#4
10L3#4
5L2#3
8L1 · trough#3
45Game pieces#18
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +121
6Foul points0
216Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.31.1
90.191.2
Auto20.6
Teleop60.9
End9.8
red by 46.5
44.80.7
40.240.8
Auto17.6
Teleop19.5
End7.8
Second
79.21.1
77.778.8
Auto18.4
Teleop51.3
End9.5
red by 54.7
3189
#24
24.50.7
23.824.5
Auto4.4
Teleop14.9
End5.1
Third
701
#22
20.61.1
19.520.6
Auto2.5
Teleop17.0
End1.1
red by 3.3
4255
#39
17.40.7
15.616.3
Auto4.5
Teleop12.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned