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Red152
325653.9
415940.8
196737.2
Blue99
510426.3
11537.4
469825.7
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1461125010020015299

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+47Teleop
+49Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave3
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points27
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +30
21Coral scored#15
75Coral points53
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
93Total teleop63
Reef
9L4#7
9L3#6
7L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +53
6Foul points2
152Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3256
#17Sur
53.90.3
58.158.4
Auto12.9
Teleop32.9
End8.1
red by 16.4
115
#14
37.41.5
34.933.4
Auto7.0
Teleop27.6
End2.9
Second
40.80.3
35.435.7
Auto14.6
Teleop24.5
End1.8
red by 14.5
5104
#25Sur
26.31.5
36.835.3
Auto3.4
Teleop19.1
End3.8
Third
1967
#16
37.20.3
36.937.2
Auto11.3
Teleop24.9
End1.0
red by 11.4
4698
#29
25.71.5
36.535.0
Auto11.5
Teleop10.3
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
41%Coral oddsEarned35%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsMissed84%Barge oddsMissed