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Red56
185412.3
264328.7
476526.5
Blue53
469825.7
196737.2
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions931080501502005653

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+1Teleop
Endgame+3
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave6
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points21
13Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +15
6Coral scored#5
23Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
37Total teleop22
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
6Foul points0
56Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2643
#27
28.72.4
29.026.6
Auto3.4
Teleop24.4
End0.9
blue by 8.5
1967
#16
37.22.6
41.538.9
Auto11.3
Teleop24.9
End1.0
Second
4765
#35
26.52.4
33.731.3
Auto5.7
Teleop19.7
End1.1
red by 0.8
4698
#29
25.72.6
40.938.3
Auto11.5
Teleop10.3
End3.9
Third
1854
#33
12.31.4
12.313.7
Auto1.7
Teleop8.1
End2.6
red by 7.9
4.40.9
4.45.4
Auto1.7
Teleop3.3
End-0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsMissed93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed31%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed48%Barge oddsMissed