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Red90
415940.8
84041.1
499018.8
Blue76
248923.3
605924.5
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1244101001502009076

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+2Teleop
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points6
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +15
11Coral scored#13
38Coral points47
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
0Processor points6
12Net points12
12Algae points18
50Total teleop65
Reef
4L4#5
6L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#18
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
90Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
840
#3
41.10.8
41.040.3
Auto6.3
Teleop30.3
End4.6
red by 16.6
6059
#30
24.51.9
23.625.5
Auto3.8
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Second
40.80.8
42.441.6
Auto14.6
Teleop24.5
End1.8
red by 17.5
2489
#26
23.31.9
21.923.7
Auto5.0
Teleop16.9
End1.4
Third
4990
#31
18.80.8
18.317.5
Auto3.7
Teleop14.5
End0.6
red by 14.3
4.43.1
2.75.8
Auto1.7
Teleop3.3
End-0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
65%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed