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Red141
541949.1
666533.8
70124.0
Blue140
318932.5
348239.8
359837.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109116050150200250141140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+30
Teleop+21
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousBlue +30
6Leave9
1Coral scored#7
6Coral points33
12Total auto42
TeleoperatedRed +9
21Coral scored#17
77Coral points62
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
12Processor points18
16Net points16
28Algae points34
105Total teleop96
Reef
6L4#7
7L3#7
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#31
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
141Total score140

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5419
#15
49.10.9
46.647.6
Auto7.3
Teleop35.4
End6.4
red by 9.2
3482
#24
39.80.8
38.539.2
Auto8.7
Teleop30.5
End0.6
Second
33.80.9
31.432.3
Auto5.1
Teleop18.7
End9.9
blue by 3.9
3598
#18
37.70.8
36.437.1
Auto8.8
Teleop23.6
End5.3
Third
701
#26
24.00.9
21.622.5
Auto2.8
Teleop18.9
End2.3
blue by 8.5
32.50.8
31.131.9
Auto5.9
Teleop23.9
End2.6