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Red120
688419.4
858521.9
167159.8
Blue71
1033611.5
75127.9
619121.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1007005015012071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+47Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
17Coral scored#12
61Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
81Total teleop58
Reef
8L4#3
5L3#4
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
120Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.82.0
51.953.9
Auto16.1
Teleop37.4
End6.3
red by 31.9
751
#28
27.90.2
27.727.9
Auto7.1
Teleop18.6
End2.2
Second
8585
#38
21.92.0
13.315.3
Auto2.8
Teleop16.6
End2.5
red by 0.2
6191
#30
21.70.3
21.021.3
Auto3.8
Teleop16.2
End1.8
Third
6884
#23
19.42.0
16.718.7
Auto6.1
Teleop10.6
End2.7
red by 7.9
11.50.2
11.211.4
Auto3.6
Teleop7.5
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed