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Red151
246538.0
630523.6
566544.2
Blue109
950515.3
432256.3
958432.6
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11111480100120140160151109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave3
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points31
20Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +44
27Coral scored#16
97Coral points57
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
115Total teleop71
Reef
14L4#8
6L3#6
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
12Foul points0
151Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5665
#21
44.22.5
38.641.1
Auto7.6
Teleop34.0
End2.6
blue by 12.1
4322
#12
56.30.1
55.055.1
Auto14.1
Teleop37.4
End4.7
Second
2465
#14
38.02.5
35.437.9
Auto8.1
Teleop23.0
End6.8
red by 5.4
9584
#25
32.60.1
30.230.4
Auto8.2
Teleop16.8
End7.6
Third
6305
#27
23.62.5
22.324.8
Auto5.2
Teleop17.0
End1.3
red by 8.3
9505
#41
15.30.1
15.715.8
Auto4.4
Teleop11.3
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed