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Red54
555320.2
59726.6
69049.3
Blue41
622015.9
68722.8
512425.6
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5575020401001205441

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+9Teleop
+7Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
5Coral scored#5
18Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
28Total teleop26
Reef
1L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points0
54Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
597
#18
26.60.2
27.827.6
Auto7.7
Teleop16.6
End2.3
red by 1.1
5124
#24
25.62.9
18.615.7
Auto5.3
Teleop17.9
End2.4
Second
5553
#27
20.20.2
13.713.4
Auto1.6
Teleop16.7
End1.9
blue by 2.6
687
#33
22.82.9
31.228.3
Auto6.1
Teleop14.1
End2.7
Third
6904
#38
9.30.1
8.58.3
Auto2.1
Teleop5.2
End1.9
blue by 6.7
6220
#39
15.92.9
17.314.4
Auto3.1
Teleop11.7
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed