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Red116
784041.2
499928.1
886113.5
Blue55
961519.9
508914.3
98028.5
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions697720406010012011655

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+47Teleop
+55Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +37
13Coral scored#9
48Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
12Processor points6
20Net points4
32Algae points10
80Total teleop43
Reef
5L4#5
3L3#2
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#12
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
6Foul points0
116Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.25.5
19.524.9
Auto7.7
Teleop27.4
End6.0
red by 12.7
980
#17
28.51.3
20.619.3
Auto3.0
Teleop21.4
End4.1
Second
4999
#20
28.14.0
21.825.8
Auto4.6
Teleop18.7
End4.8
red by 8.1
9615
#35
19.91.3
19.518.3
Auto2.0
Teleop14.9
End3.0
Third
8861
#40DQ
13.55.5
17.022.5
Auto3.6
Teleop9.4
End0.5
blue by 0.7
5089
#30
14.31.3
23.322.0
Auto5.0
Teleop8.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed