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Red30
665814.6
68722.8
950510.2
Blue37
508914.3
585716.9
145215.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5551203040607080903037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
Teleop+5
Endgame+5
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +9
6Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +4
4Coral scored#3
16Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
20Total teleop16
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points2
30Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
687
#33
22.82.0
24.922.8
Auto6.1
Teleop14.1
End2.7
red by 5.9
5857
#11
16.91.4
18.617.2
Auto5.0
Teleop8.5
End3.4
Second
6658
#21
14.61.5
15.814.2
Auto2.7
Teleop6.9
End5.1
blue by 0.9
1452
#14
15.51.1
16.515.5
Auto4.4
Teleop8.2
End2.9
Third
9505
#42
10.22.0
12.310.2
Auto3.0
Teleop7.4
End-0.2
blue by 4.1
5089
#30
14.31.5
15.814.3
Auto5.0
Teleop8.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsMissed