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Red96
447027.8
59931.6
98028.5
Blue117
166136.8
420140.3
265923.0
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions921105015020096117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+23
Endgame+11
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave3
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points27
16Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +9
10Coral scored#14
36Coral points51
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
56Total teleop65
Reef
5L4#8
4L3#3
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
16Game pieces#22
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +21
8Foul points18
96Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
599
#9
31.60.0
31.631.6
Auto7.9
Teleop21.8
End1.9
blue by 8.7
4201
#15
40.30.1
40.840.8
Auto8.2
Teleop26.5
End5.6
Second
980
#17
28.50.0
28.528.5
Auto3.0
Teleop21.4
End4.1
blue by 8.3
36.80.1
37.237.2
Auto10.3
Teleop24.9
End1.5
Third
27.80.0
27.827.8
Auto4.0
Teleop17.1
End6.8
red by 4.8
2659
#22
23.00.1
23.623.5
Auto4.7
Teleop16.6
End1.7