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Red118
281340.9
145821.0
318928.5
Blue108
167138.5
741323.8
541940.4
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87900204060100120140160118108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+12Teleop
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
18Coral scored#15
63Coral points55
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
6Processor points12
16Net points16
22Algae points28
85Total teleop83
Reef
7L4#5
5L3#3
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
118Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.94.1
32.136.2
Auto6.9
Teleop25.1
End8.9
red by 0.6
40.42.7
32.335.0
Auto5.9
Teleop28.2
End6.3
Second
3189
#11
28.54.1
27.131.2
Auto6.2
Teleop19.8
End2.6
blue by 10.0
1671
#10
38.52.7
28.130.8
Auto6.6
Teleop25.3
End6.6
Third
1458
#13
21.04.1
16.620.7
Auto6.9
Teleop12.1
End2.0
blue by 2.8
7413
#20
23.82.7
16.919.7
Auto5.9
Teleop16.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsEarned