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Red19
911421.0
207320.1
318928.5
Blue131
203520.9
247337.6
167138.5
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7710805010015019131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+78
Endgame+100
Fouls+112
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave3
1Coral scored#4
3Coral points19
9Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +65
2Coral scored#14
6Coral points49
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#4
0Processor points6
0Net points16
0Algae points22
6Total teleop71
Reef
1L4#7
1L3#5
1L2#3
0L1 · trough#3
3Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +112
0Foul points12
19Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3189
#11
28.51.2
29.728.5
Auto6.2
Teleop19.8
End2.6
blue by 10.0
1671
#10
38.50.5
38.138.6
Auto6.6
Teleop25.3
End6.6
Second
9114
#14
21.01.2
22.221.0
Auto5.9
Teleop13.3
End1.9
blue by 16.6
37.60.5
37.237.7
Auto4.5
Teleop25.3
End7.8
Third
2073
#22
20.11.2
21.320.1
Auto4.9
Teleop12.8
End2.3
blue by 0.8
2035
#23
20.90.5
20.521.0
Auto5.2
Teleop14.9
End0.7